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Correlation
of values
-48%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
667
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~23% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-48%
Based on values
95% CI
-54% → -42%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
667 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
2,904
Normalized
811
2,904
Prepared
811
668
Aligned
667
667
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
23%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
667
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-48%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
667 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
145
A: 144 / B: 1
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,904 raw → 668 prepared
Sign agreement
29.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0166
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.1808
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-nfci_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y