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Correlation
of values
-49%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-07
11,115
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-49%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,115 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,129
13,971
Normalized
11,129
13,971
Prepared
11,129
13,971
Aligned
11,115
11,115
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
24%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
11,115
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-49%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,115 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,870
A: 14 / B: 2856
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,129 raw → 11,129 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 13,971 raw → 13,971 prepared
Sign agreement
88.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2073.1894
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7289.2642
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-nasdaqcom_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y