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Correlation
of values
+92%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
415
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~85% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+92%
Based on values
95% CI
+90% → +93%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
415 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
415
14,011
Normalized
415
14,011
Prepared
415
668
Aligned
415
415
Invalid removed
R²(i)
85%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
415
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+92%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
415 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+92%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+16%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
253
A: 0 / B: 253
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 415 raw → 415 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 14,011 raw → 668 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0322
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-7239.5837
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-nasdaqcom_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y