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Correlation
of values
+89%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
664
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~79% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+89%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
664 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
13,971
Normalized
809
13,971
Prepared
809
666
Aligned
664
664
Invalid removed
79%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
664
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+89%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
664 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+89%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+49%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+98%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
147
A: 145 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 13,971 raw → 666 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7811
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2483.4295
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-nasdaqcom_fred-pce_monthly_5y