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Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-61%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
15
These move in the same direction about 69% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~38% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~1 month before NAKA
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on NAKA.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
69%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-87% → -10%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
328
800
Normalized
328
800
Prepared
17
800
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
38%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -1 to 1 months.
Selected shift
-1 month
Correlation at this shift
-76%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 1 month later. Reads: "Does Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 1 month ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 month
-76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+47%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
787
A: 2 / B: 785
Series A
Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA)
NAKA
Stock · 328 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 800 raw → 800 prepared
Sign agreement
86.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0904
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0667
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-naka_monthly_5y