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Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
+26%
In sync
of periods
21%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
15
These move in the same direction about 21% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Retail Sales moves ~3 months before NAKA
Watch Retail Sales for an early read on NAKA.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
21%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-32% → +69%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
328
415
Normalized
328
415
Prepared
17
415
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
14
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
-3 months
Correlation at this shift
-45%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
Retail Sales shifted 3 months later. Reads: "Does Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA) today line up with Retail Sales 3 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 months
-45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+19%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
402
A: 2 / B: 400
Series A
Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA)
NAKA
Stock · 328 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 415 raw → 415 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0041
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0063
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-naka_monthly_5y