Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+49%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
16
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~4 months before NAKA
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on NAKA.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+49%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-4% → +80%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
16 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
327
1,052
Normalized
327
1,052
Prepared
17
1,052
Aligned
16
16
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
24%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
15
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
+56%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 4 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-47%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+11%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,037
A: 1 / B: 1036
Series A
Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA)
NAKA
Stock · 327 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,052 raw → 1,052 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0008
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-payems_stock-naka_monthly_5y