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Niagen Bioscience, Inc. Common Stock (NAGE) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
-26%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
15
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
NAGE moves ~2 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch NAGE for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
328
708
Normalized
328
708
Prepared
17
708
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
7%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
14
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
+52%
+26% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does Niagen Bioscience, Inc. Common Stock (NAGE) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 2 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
695
A: 2 / B: 693
Series A
Niagen Bioscience, Inc. Common Stock (NAGE)
NAGE
Stock · 328 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.1435
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0577
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-nage_monthly_5y