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Correlation
of % moves
-31%
In sync
of periods
32%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-01
1,241
These move in the same direction about 32% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
32%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-36% → -26%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,241 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,921
1,253
Normalized
5,921
1,253
Prepared
5,921
1,253
Aligned
1,241
1,241
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,240
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-31%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,240 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+54%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
94 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,692
A: 4680 / B: 12
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,921 raw → 5,921 prepared
Series B
MUB
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
73
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0607
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-t10yie-vs-stock-mub-daily