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Correlation
of % moves
-36%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
PPI: All Commodities moves ~16 months before MUB
Watch PPI: All Commodities for an early read on MUB.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-56% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,363
1,254
Normalized
1,363
1,254
Prepared
1,363
61
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
-42%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
MUB shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does PPI: All Commodities today line up with MUB 16 months from now?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
-42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-78%
32 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,306
A: 1304 / B: 2
Series A
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,363 raw → 1,363 prepared
Series B
MUB
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3208
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ppiaco_stock-mub_monthly_5y