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Correlation
of % moves
-53%
In sync
of periods
25%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
261
These move in the same direction about 25% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~28% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
25%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-53%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-61% → -44%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,828
1,253
Normalized
1,828
1,253
Prepared
1,828
262
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
R²(i)
28%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
260
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-53%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
260 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
178 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,568
A: 1567 / B: 1
Series A
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,828 raw → 1,828 prepared
Series B
MUB
Stock · 1,253 raw → 262 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1154
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_stock-mub_weekly_5y