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Correlation
of % moves
-66%
In sync
of periods
18%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-31
1,240
These move in the same direction about 18% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~44% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
18%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-66%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-69% → -63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,240 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,151
1,253
Normalized
16,151
1,253
Prepared
16,151
1,253
Aligned
1,240
1,240
Invalid removed
R²(i)
44%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,239
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,239 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+23%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-47%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-88%
129 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,924
A: 14911 / B: 13
Series A
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
FRED · 16,151 raw → 16,151 prepared
Series B
MUB
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
61
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0905
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dgs10-vs-stock-mub-daily