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Correlation
of % moves
-70%
In sync
of periods
20%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-31
1,241
These move in the same direction about 20% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~48% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
20%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-70%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-72% → -67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,241 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
10,202
1,253
Normalized
10,202
1,253
Prepared
10,202
1,253
Aligned
1,241
1,241
Invalid removed
R²(i)
48%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,240
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-70%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,240 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-70%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-70%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-24%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-87%
122 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,973
A: 8961 / B: 12
Series A
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,202 raw → 10,202 prepared
Series B
MUB
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
59
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1780
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dbaa_stock-mub_daily_5y