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Correlation
of % moves
-30%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
58
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
MUB moves ~17 months before US CPI
Watch MUB for an early read on US CPI.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-52% → -4%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
954
1,253
Normalized
954
1,253
Prepared
954
61
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
56
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
-47%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
MUB shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does US CPI today line up with MUB 17 months ago?"
31 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-36%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
899
A: 896 / B: 3
Series A
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 954 raw → 954 prepared
Series B
MUB
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.1901
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0022
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-mub_monthly_5y