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Correlation
of values
+97%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
204
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~95% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+97%
Based on values
95% CI
+96% → +98%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
204 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
253
204
Normalized
253
204
Prepared
253
204
Aligned
204
204
Invalid removed
R²(i)
94.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
204
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
204 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+46%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+46%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
87 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
49
A: 49 / B: 0
Series A
Median Home Price
MSPUS
FRED · 253 raw → 253 prepared
Series B
South Korea Home Prices
QKRN628BIS
FRED · 204 raw → 204 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.3784
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-mspus_fred-qkrn628bis_monthly_5y