SeriesMag|r|OverlapThrough
Correlation Analysis
TSLA vs MSFT
These move together about 65% of the time
Moderate positive
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of real world artificial intelligence software, which includes autonomous driving and humanoid robots. The company has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans, crossover SUVs, a light truck, and a semi truck. Tesla also plans to begin selling a sports car and offer a robotaxi service. Global deliveries in 2025 were nearly 1.64 million vehicles. The company sells batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities and solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation. Tesla also owns a fast-charging network and an auto insurance business.
Market cap 1.3T
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
What to Watch
MSFT moves ~6 days before TSLA
Watch MSFT for an early read on TSLA.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+0.12) and fall (+0.21) — reliable in both directions.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
+0.542
+0.02 stronger than no-shift baseline
Microsoft Corp shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does Tesla, Inc. Common Stock today line up with Microsoft Corp 6 days ago?"
1,248 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Microsoft Corp shifted 6 days later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.115
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.214
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.619
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
r
+0.525
Pearson correlation
95% CI
0.48 → 0.56
Likely range
R²
27.6%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
64.7%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,254
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
TSLA
Market cap 1.3T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5318
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
212.5643
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: stock-tsla-vs-stock-msft-daily-20260408-f5arme