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Marsh (MRSH) vs Initial Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
+20%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
32
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~5 weeks before MRSH
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on MRSH.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-17% → +52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
32 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
162
3,112
Normalized
162
3,112
Prepared
34
3,112
Aligned
32
32
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
31
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-5 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+41%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Initial Jobless Claims shifted 5 weeks later. Reads: "Does Marsh (MRSH) today line up with Initial Jobless Claims 5 weeks ago?"
26 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 weeks
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-55%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,082
A: 2 / B: 3080
Series A
Marsh (MRSH)
MRSH
Stock · 162 raw → 34 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,112 raw → 3,112 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3507
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0014
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-icsa_stock-mrsh_weekly_5y