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Marsh (MRSH) vs Initial Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
+33%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-26
24
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
MRSH moves ~6 weeks before Initial Jobless Claims
Watch MRSH for an early read on Initial Jobless Claims.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
121
3,104
Normalized
121
3,104
Prepared
26
3,104
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
11%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+6 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+60%
+27% stronger than no-shift baseline
Initial Jobless Claims shifted 6 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Marsh (MRSH) today line up with Initial Jobless Claims 6 weeks from now?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 weeks
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-60%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,082
A: 2 / B: 3080
Series A
Marsh (MRSH)
MRSH
Stock · 121 raw → 26 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 3,104 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6110
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0038
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-icsa_stock-mrsh_weekly_5y