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Correlation
of % moves
+37%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-12% → +71%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
317
Normalized
1,255
317
Prepared
61
317
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
18 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+27%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+8%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
340
A: 42 / B: 298
Series A
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA)
MRNA
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real GDP
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0057
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0068
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdpc1_stock-mrna_monthly_5y