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Correlation
of % moves
+26%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
MRNA moves ~3 months before US GDP
Watch MRNA for an early read on US GDP.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-23% → +65%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
317
Normalized
1,255
317
Prepared
61
317
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
-36%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
US GDP shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA) today line up with US GDP 3 months from now?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+35%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-11%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
340
A: 42 / B: 298
Series A
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA)
MRNA
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US GDP
GDP
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0052
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0163
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdp_stock-mrna_monthly_5y