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Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA) vs Labor Force Participation
Correlation
of % moves
-43%
In sync
of periods
30%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
59
These move in the same direction about 30% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
30%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
941
Normalized
1,254
941
Prepared
61
941
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
44 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
884
A: 2 / B: 882
Series A
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA)
MRNA
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0057
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_stock-mrna_monthly_5y