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Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA) vs Monetary Base
Correlation
of % moves
+29%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
MRNA moves ~17 months before Monetary Base
Watch MRNA for an early read on Monetary Base.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
809
Normalized
1,254
809
Prepared
61
809
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
8%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
-37%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Monetary Base shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA) today line up with Monetary Base 17 months from now?"
41 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+67%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
752
A: 2 / B: 750
Series A
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA)
MRNA
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0332
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_stock-mrna_monthly_5y