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Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA) vs ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-20
752
These move opposite each other about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-33% → -20%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
752 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
786
Normalized
1,255
786
Prepared
1,255
786
Aligned
752
752
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
752
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-27%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
751 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
177 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
537
A: 503 / B: 34
Series A
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA)
MRNA
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0706
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_stock-mrna_daily_5y