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Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA) vs Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-29%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
60
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
MRNA moves ~10 months before Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Watch MRNA for an early read on Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-51% → -3%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
1,292
Normalized
1,253
1,292
Prepared
61
1,292
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
+40%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA) today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 10 months from now?"
49 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
+40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-45%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,233
A: 1 / B: 1232
Series A
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock (MRNA)
MRNA
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0841
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0122
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_stock-mrna_monthly_5y