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Correlation
of % moves
+43%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
1,250
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+43%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+38% → +47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,250 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
2,514
Normalized
1,254
2,514
Prepared
1,254
2,514
Aligned
1,250
1,250
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,250
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,249 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+57%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+54%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,268
A: 4 / B: 1264
Series A
MPLX LP (MPLX)
MPLX
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,514 raw → 2,514 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3609
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-sp500_stock-mplx_daily_5y