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Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
388
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~15 months before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
-49% → -32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
388 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,880
388
Normalized
2,880
388
Prepared
663
388
Aligned
388
388
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
388
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
-48%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does 30Y Mortgage Rate today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 15 months ago?"
366 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-41%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-16%
69 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
275
A: 275 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 663 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 388 raw → 388 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7556
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
14.2899
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage30us_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y