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Correlation
of values
-47%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
605
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-47%
Based on values
95% CI
-53% → -40%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
605 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,880
605
Normalized
2,880
605
Prepared
663
605
Aligned
605
605
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
605
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-47%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
605 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
58
A: 58 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 663 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 605 raw → 605 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3124
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
17.5911
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage30us_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y