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Correlation
of values
+33%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
1,223
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+33%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +38%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,223 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,880
5,862
Normalized
2,880
5,862
Prepared
2,880
1,224
Aligned
1,223
1,223
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,223
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,223 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,658
A: 1657 / B: 1
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 2,880 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 1,224 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0860
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.8223
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage30us_fred-t5yifr_weekly_5y