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Correlation
of values
+36%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
1,223
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~12 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on values
95% CI
+31% → +41%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,223 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,880
5,862
Normalized
2,880
5,862
Prepared
2,880
1,224
Aligned
1,223
1,223
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,223
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
5Y Breakeven Inflation shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does 30Y Mortgage Rate today line up with 5Y Breakeven Inflation 12 weeks ago?"
1,211 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,658
A: 1657 / B: 1
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 2,880 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 1,224 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
26
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1655
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.1389
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage30us_fred-t5yie_weekly_5y