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Correlation
of values
+40%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
1,236
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
10Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~12 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch 10Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+40%
Based on values
95% CI
+35% → +45%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,236 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,893
5,925
Normalized
2,893
5,925
Prepared
2,893
1,237
Aligned
1,236
1,236
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,236
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+45%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
10Y Breakeven Inflation shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does 30Y Mortgage Rate today line up with 10Y Breakeven Inflation 12 weeks ago?"
1,224 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,658
A: 1657 / B: 1
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,893 raw → 2,893 prepared
Series B
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,925 raw → 1,237 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1253
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4825
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_fred-t10yie_weekly_5y