SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+64%
of values
In sync
46%
of periods
History
522
weeks · through 2026-18
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~41% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+64%
Based on values
95% CI
+59% → +69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
522 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,875
2,515
Normalized
2,875
2,515
Prepared
2,875
522
Aligned
522
522
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
41.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
522
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+64%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
522 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-76%
136 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,353
A: 2353 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 522 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
584.4497
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1100.7271
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-mortgage30us_fred-sp500_5y