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Correlation
of values
-63%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
661
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~40% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-63%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -58%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
661 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,880
1,360
Normalized
2,880
1,360
Prepared
663
1,360
Aligned
661
661
Invalid removed
R²(i)
39.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
661
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
661 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-32%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
701
A: 2 / B: 699
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 663 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-11.6527
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
231.0687
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage30us_fred-ppiaco_monthly_5y