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Correlation
of values
-68%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
662
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~46% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
PCE Price Index moves ~18 months before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch PCE Price Index for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-68%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
662 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
2,884
Normalized
809
2,884
Prepared
809
664
Aligned
662
662
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
46%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
662
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-74%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does PCE Price Index today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 18 months from now?"
644 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
149
A: 147 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,884 raw → 664 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0756
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13.0750
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y