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Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
388
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~15 months before 15Y Mortgage Rate
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on 15Y Mortgage Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
-49% → -32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
388 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,815
388
Normalized
1,815
388
Prepared
419
388
Aligned
388
388
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
388
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
-50%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does 15Y Mortgage Rate today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 15 months ago?"
366 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-30%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
71 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
31
A: 31 / B: 0
Series A
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,815 raw → 419 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 388 raw → 388 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7131
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13.6337
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y