SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-65%
of values
In sync
45%
of periods
History
416
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~43% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~18 months before Bank Reserves
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on Bank Reserves.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-65%
Based on values
95% CI
-71% → -59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
416 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
1,810
Normalized
807
1,810
Prepared
807
417
Aligned
416
416
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
42.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
416
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-75%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Bank Reserves today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 18 months ago?"
398 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-75%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
392
A: 391 / B: 1
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,810 raw → 417 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0009
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.3320
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-totresns_5y