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Correlation
of values
+37%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
1,223
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
10Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~12 weeks before 15Y Mortgage Rate
Watch 10Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on 15Y Mortgage Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on values
95% CI
+32% → +41%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,223 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,862
1,815
Normalized
5,862
1,815
Prepared
1,224
1,815
Aligned
1,223
1,223
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,223
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+42%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does 10Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks from now?"
1,211 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
+42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
593
A: 1 / B: 592
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 1,224 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,815 raw → 1,815 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.2114
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.7849
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-t10yie_weekly_5y