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Correlation
of values
-25%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
1,815
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on values
95% CI
-29% → -20%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,815 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,501
1,815
Normalized
12,501
1,815
Prepared
2,611
1,815
Aligned
1,815
1,815
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,815
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-25%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,815 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
796
A: 796 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 2,611 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,815 raw → 1,815 prepared
Sign agreement
87.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4677
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.7360
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-t10y2y_weekly_5y