SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
-58%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
416
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~18 months before PPI: All Commodities
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on PPI: All Commodities.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on values
95% CI
-64% → -52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
416 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,810
1,359
Normalized
1,810
1,359
Prepared
417
1,359
Aligned
416
416
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
416
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-72%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 15Y Mortgage Rate today line up with PPI: All Commodities 18 months from now?"
398 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+27%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+27%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
118 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
944
A: 1 / B: 943
Series A
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,810 raw → 417 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,359 raw → 1,359 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-14.9042
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
253.4673
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-ppiaco_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.