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Correlation
of values
-58%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
417
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~18 months before Core PCE Price Index
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on Core PCE Price Index.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on values
95% CI
-64% → -51%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
417 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
1,815
Normalized
808
1,815
Prepared
808
419
Aligned
417
417
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
33.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
417
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-68%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Core PCE Price Index today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 18 months ago?"
399 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+23%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-16%
59 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
393
A: 391 / B: 2
Series A
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,815 raw → 419 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0598
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.6092
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-pcepilfe_monthly_5y