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Correlation
of values
-59%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
417
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~18 months before PCE Price Index
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on PCE Price Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on values
95% CI
-65% → -53%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
417 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
1,815
Normalized
808
1,815
Prepared
808
419
Aligned
417
417
Invalid removed
R²(i)
35.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
417
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-69%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does PCE Price Index today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 18 months ago?"
399 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-10%
62 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
393
A: 391 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,815 raw → 419 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0583
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.4708
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y