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Correlation
of values
-59%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
418
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~18 months before PCE Price Index
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on PCE Price Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
418 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
1,819
Normalized
809
1,819
Prepared
809
420
Aligned
418
418
Invalid removed
34%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
418
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-68%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does PCE Price Index today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 18 months ago?"
400 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
66 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
393
A: 391 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,819 raw → 420 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0574
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.3942
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y