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Altria Group, Inc. (MO) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
-28%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~11 months before MO
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on MO.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-50% → -2%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,048
Normalized
1,254
1,048
Prepared
60
1,048
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
-39%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Altria Group, Inc. (MO) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 11 months ago?"
47 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-27%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
29 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
990
A: 1 / B: 989
Series A
Altria Group, Inc. (MO)
MO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,048 raw → 1,048 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0093
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0015
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-payems_stock-mo_monthly_5y