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Altria Group, Inc. (MO) vs M2 Money Supply
Correlation
of % moves
+31%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
MO moves ~9 months before M2 Money Supply
Watch MO for an early read on M2 Money Supply.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
809
Normalized
1,254
809
Prepared
61
809
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
10%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+9 months
Correlation at this shift
+40%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
M2 Money Supply shifted 9 months earlier. Reads: "Does Altria Group, Inc. (MO) today line up with M2 Money Supply 9 months from now?"
49 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 months
+40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
752
A: 2 / B: 750
Series A
Altria Group, Inc. (MO)
MO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0277
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0017
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-m2sl_stock-mo_monthly_5y