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Correlation
of % moves
-31%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
US CPI moves ~17 months before MO
Watch US CPI for an early read on MO.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-53% → -5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
951
Normalized
1,254
951
Prepared
60
951
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
-38%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does Altria Group, Inc. (MO) today line up with US CPI 17 months ago?"
34 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
-38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
895
A: 2 / B: 893
Series A
Altria Group, Inc. (MO)
MO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0185
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0038
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-mo_monthly_5y