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Markel Group Inc. (MKL) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities moves ~17 months before MKL
Watch Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities for an early read on MKL.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
708
Normalized
1,254
708
Prepared
61
708
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
7%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
+43%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does Markel Group Inc. (MKL) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 17 months ago?"
41 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
651
A: 2 / B: 649
Series A
Markel Group Inc. (MKL)
MKL
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-5.8403
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0649
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-mkl_monthly_5y