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Markel Group Inc. (MKL) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
-29%
In sync
of periods
34%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
34%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-51% → -3%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
710
Normalized
1,253
710
Prepared
61
710
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-29%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
58 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
653
A: 2 / B: 651
Series A
Markel Group Inc. (MKL)
MKL
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.5168
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0119
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-mkl_monthly_5y