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Correlation
of % moves
+24%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-04
46
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
MKFG moves ~16 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch MKFG for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-6% → +50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
46 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
949
797
Normalized
949
797
Prepared
46
797
Aligned
46
46
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
46
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
-33%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does MKFG today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 16 months from now?"
29 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+68%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
751
A: 0 / B: 751
Series A
MKFG
Stock · 949 raw → 46 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
68.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2725
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0482
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-mkfg_monthly_5y