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Meta Platforms, Inc. Class A Common Stock (META) vs Bank Reserves
Correlation
of % moves
-61%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
54
These move opposite each other about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~38% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-76% → -41%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
54 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,140
807
Normalized
1,140
807
Prepared
56
807
Aligned
54
54
Invalid removed
R²(i)
37.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
54
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-61%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
53 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-44%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
755
A: 2 / B: 753
Series A
Meta Platforms, Inc. Class A Common Stock (META)
META
Stock · 1,140 raw → 56 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0641
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-totresns_stock-meta_monthly_5y