Correlation Analysis
META vs MSFT
These move together about 71% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Meta is the largest social media company in the world, boasting close to 4 billion monthly active users worldwide. The firm's "Family of Apps," its core business, consists of Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp. End users can leverage these applications for a variety of different purposes, from keeping in touch with friends to following celebrities and running digital businesses for free. Meta packages customer data, gleaned from its application ecosystem and sells ads to digital advertisers. While the firm has been investing heavily in its Reality Labs business, it remains a very small part of Meta's overall sales.
Market cap 1.4T
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
What to Watch
MSFT moves ~6 days before META
Watch MSFT for an early read on META.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (-0.05) vs when both rise (+0.28) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
+0.893
+0.00 stronger than no-shift baseline
Microsoft Corp shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does Meta Platforms, Inc. Class A Common Stock today line up with Microsoft Corp 6 days ago?"
1,101 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Microsoft Corp shifted 6 days later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.276
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.047
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.746
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
r
+0.893
Pearson correlation
95% CI
0.88 → 0.90
Likely range
R²
79.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
70.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,107
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,107 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,107
1,254
Normalized
1,107
1,254
Prepared
1,107
1,254
Aligned
1,107
1,107
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Market cap 2.8T
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
147
A: 0 / B: 147
Series A
Meta Platforms, Inc. Class A Common Stock
META
Market cap 1.4T
Stock · 1,107 raw → 1,107 prepared
Series B
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3086
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
250.8789
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: stock-meta-vs-stock-msft-daily-20260408-5w4uf1