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Meta Platforms Inc. (META) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+71%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-19
236
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~50% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+71%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+64% → +77%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
236 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,131
2,876
Normalized
1,131
2,876
Prepared
237
2,876
Aligned
236
236
Invalid removed
R²(i)
50.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
236
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+71%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
235 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+79%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+21%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
145 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,641
A: 1 / B: 2640
Series A
META
Stock · 1,131 raw → 237 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,876 raw → 2,876 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1284
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0012
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-meta_weekly_5y