Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-25%
In sync
of periods
—
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
51
These move together
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
N/A
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on values
95% CI
-49% → +3%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
51 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
51
710
Normalized
51
710
Prepared
51
710
Aligned
51
51
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
51
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-25%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
51 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
659
A: 0 / B: 659
Series A
Real Median Personal Income in the United States
MEPAINUSA672N
FRED · 51 raw → 51 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0011
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
49.0318
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-mepainusa672n_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y