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Medline Inc. Class A common stock (MDLN) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-34%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
25
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
MDLN moves ~1 week before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch MDLN for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-65% → +8%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
25 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
121
2,880
Normalized
121
2,880
Prepared
26
2,880
Aligned
25
25
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
25
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+1 week
Correlation at this shift
-50%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 1 week earlier. Reads: "Does Medline Inc. Class A common stock (MDLN) today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 1 week from now?"
23 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 week
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-50%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,856
A: 1 / B: 2855
Series A
Medline Inc. Class A common stock (MDLN)
MDLN
Stock · 121 raw → 26 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 2,880 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0810
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0012
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-mdln_weekly_5y