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Medline Inc. Class A common stock (MDLN) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-28%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
38
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
MDLN moves ~5 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch MDLN for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-55% → +5%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
38 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
182
2,893
Normalized
182
2,893
Prepared
39
2,893
Aligned
38
38
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
37
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+5 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+39%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 5 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Medline Inc. Class A common stock (MDLN) today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 5 weeks from now?"
32 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 weeks
+39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-27%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-45%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,856
A: 1 / B: 2855
Series A
Medline Inc. Class A common stock (MDLN)
MDLN
Stock · 182 raw → 39 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,893 raw → 2,893 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0582
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0019
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-mdln_weekly_5y