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McKesson Corporation (MCK) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+22%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
MCK moves ~13 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch MCK for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+22%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-4% → +45%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
796
Normalized
1,253
796
Prepared
61
796
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does McKesson Corporation (MCK) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 13 months from now?"
39 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+22%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
739
A: 2 / B: 737
Series A
McKesson Corporation (MCK)
MCK
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
72.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.1519
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0264
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-mck_monthly_5y